- Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Online
- Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Free
- Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Software
- Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Program
This free horse racing system can be used with any selection process and can be used with horses that are short prices as well as big prices too. So may horses come close to winning but don't actually come first in their races. Horses beaten by a nose, a short head or simply losing the expected lead in the last 100 yards of a race. The systems and processes for handicapping a horse race using data from a past race disclosed herein enable a user to forecast the results of a horse race. The user or system selects a horse to handicap in an upcoming race, the handicapped race, and a comparable past race that the horse has run. The system then collects data from the past race. Making online horse betting easier to navigate. Betting Online on Horse Races. Horse betting online took rise in the 1980s. Before that horse gambling had to take place on the tracks. As the internet developed, so did online betting horses. Now, almost all major race tracks have their betting platform.
On Jan. 19, 2014, Peyton Manning passed for 400 yards in a 26-16 victory over the New England Patriots that catapulted the Denver Broncos into Super Bowl XLVIII — which they lost in humiliating fashion to the Seattle Seahawks, despite Manning’s 280 yards through the air.
Two years later, Denver and New England again played for the AFC Championship, but this time, Manning, clearly showing the effects of his 39.8 years of age and multiple neck surgeries, managed just 176 yards passing.
Yet Denver won. And on Feb. 7, 2015, the Broncos beat the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl, with Manning throwing for just 141 yards — the second-lowest total in his postseason career.
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Online
So, why am I talking about football and Peyton Manning in a horse racing article? It’s because I think Manning’s story makes the point that time matters when evaluating athletic performances.
Manning is considered by most to be one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. His 71,940 career passing yards are the most ever (at least for now — Drew Brees and Tom Brady will undoubtedly have a say before their careers are over). He tossed 539 career touchdown passes (Brett Favre currently ranks second with 508) and was credited with 45 fourth-quarter comebacks (again, an NFL best).
Yet, the one opponent that Manning could not vanquish was Father Time, the great enemy of all athletes not named Tom Brady.
And time is even harsher on equine athletes, whose athletic lifespan is much, much shorter than the average human’s. This is why I think it is crucial that handicappers always keep the time element firmly in mind when analyzing a horse’s past performances. What was true a month ago, may not be true today and what is true today may not be true a month from now.
With this in mind, I created a time-adjusted speed rating (TASR for short) and tested it on my database of over 77,000 races. The rules were simple. To qualify, a horse had to have:
- A most recent TASR of 100 or greater, earned over today’s general surface (dirt/synthetic or turf).
- The best last-race TASR in the field.
Number: 6,041
Winners: 1,454
Win Rate: 24.1%
$2 Return (ROI): $1.86 (-7.04%)
Winners: 1,454
Win Rate: 24.1%
$2 Return (ROI): $1.86 (-7.04%)
Now, the first thing an astute horse player will notice is that the ROI on these steeds is half as negative as what one might expect from the race favorite — which is a great thing, especially since we are essentially looking at a single factor.
So, buoyed by this initial test, I added some additional criterion (listed below with my rationale and the test results):
- Horse must show at least one win over the past two years. (This eliminates maiden races and the plethora of first-time starters they often contain).
Number: 5,126
Winners: 1,277
Win Rate: 24.9%
$2 Return (ROI): $1.95 (-2.27%)
Winners: 1,277
Win Rate: 24.9%
$2 Return (ROI): $1.95 (-2.27%)
- Horse must have finished in-the-money (third-place or better) in its last start. (In my experience, a big speed figure earned in a poor effort is very suspect.)
Number: 4,174
Winners: 1,130
Win Rate: 27.1%
$2 Return (ROI): $2.05 (+2.52%)
Winners: 1,130
Win Rate: 27.1%
$2 Return (ROI): $2.05 (+2.52%)
Eureka, profitability at last!
Still, I thought the results could be better, so I added a price component. While I don’t think the morning line is the best way to assess overlays and underlays, it’s surely one of the easiest. So, with that in mind…
- Horse must be at least 3-1 on the morning line.
Number: 2,930
Winners: 620
Win Rate: 21.2%
$2 Return (ROI): $2.15 (+7.70%)
Winners: 620
Win Rate: 21.2%
$2 Return (ROI): $2.15 (+7.70%)
At this point, I know what a lot of you are thinking: This is all well and good, Derek, but it’s kind of useless without knowing how the TASR is computed. Dixell ic121 manual.
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Free
Well, I’m afraid that will have to remain a closely guarded secret, only to be revealed under the threat of torture — like being forced to watch “The View”. However, I hope that readers will find value in the TASR concept. Heck, my method for determining the time decay of a speed figure may not even be the best method — it probably isn’t — but I hope it at least gets readers thinking along similar lines.
(For a list of qualifying speed plays this Saturday (Nov. 18, 2017), check out the US Racing Facebook page at www.facebook.com/betusracing.)
Ex-professional gambler checking in.It's no secret that it's possible to figure out which horse is going to win a race with reasonable statistical confidence.
Scourge of war gettysburg review. Apr 12, 2011 Scourge of War: Gettysburg – PC Game Review By Bryce T. Scourge of War: Gettysburg. PC Game Review. Publisher: Norb Development Software, Inc. Developer: Norb Development Software, Inc.Digital Download $29.99 CD + Manual $59.99. Passed Inspection: High level of historical realism.Units and topography authentically modeled.
The trick - and always has been - is making sure you can make a profit from it.
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Software
If a horse has a 30% chance of winning a race, and you're being offered odds as if it only has a 10% chance (i.e. 9/1), you have identified 'value' or what Kelly Criterion would describe as 'edge'. You can mathematically in the long term make a profit, and Kelly can even tell you what %age of your bank to wager to optimise your expected returns: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Identifying the 'true' odds of an outcome and then identifying what odds you're prepared to take (adding an over-round), is a key piece to what bookmakers do when creating what they call 'the tissue' - the opening odds they offer that is then adjusted to manage liabilities in line with incoming weight of money (WoM) from bettors.
Kelly was a colleague of Claude Shannon. His papers have stood up to the rigour of mathematical analysis and also make intuitive sense to those who spend enough time thinking about it.
It has successfully been applied in casinos (Blackjack system pioneer Edward Thorpe is/was a fan), bookmakers, hedge funds (Thorpe again, but many other funds apply Kelly too), and everything in between.
But here's the rub: you won't get to keep your edge for very long. Bookmakers, betting exchanges and parimutuel systems all adapt to deal with long-term winners. Your window of opportunity is limited. Already bookmakers have good systems for identifying true odds for English Premier League games and make a tidy sum on over-rounds (profit margins) as thin as 3% because they can eliminate value.
That said, as any fan of Sabremetrics will tell you, statistical analysis of a sport you love can be very rewarding and I would not put anybody off this if they already love the horses (as I still do).
Just tread carefully, and to make a long-term killing you're going to have to treat your setup like a hedge fund and always be moving around finding new edges.
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Program
I'm @p7r on Twitter if anybody wants to talk about this - I could talk for hours and hours and hours.. :-)